The potato is an indispensable part of European cuisine, particularly in Germany. But our beloved tuber is under pressure: climate change is increasingly taking its toll on potato farming. Already today, over 90% of surveyed farmers in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland feel the direct effects of changing climatic conditions on their production.
But how exactly does climate change affect the potato? A look at production, diseases, and yields reveals the challenges facing agriculture.
1. Effects on Production and Yields
Potatoes actually prefer a temperate climate with optimal average temperatures between 18 and 20 °C. They are highly susceptible to heat and drought stress. When temperatures rise above 25 °C during the growing phase, the plant stops forming tubers and instead channels its energy into leaf growth. Temperatures above 30 °C are considered a critical threshold that severely inhibits growth.
For Germany, it is projected that without adaptation measures, potato yields could drop by a drastic 18% by 2050 under a high emission scenario (RCP 8.5). While artificial irrigation can offset about half (approx. 54%) of these yield losses, the potential of irrigation is limited, as it cannot fully neutralise extreme air temperatures and water is increasingly becoming a scarce resource.
In addition to heat and drought, paradoxically, heavy rainfall events and flash floods also pose problems. These lead to soil erosion and waterlogging, which hinder root growth and nutrient uptake and delay planting and harvesting on waterlogged fields. In the long term, potato farming in Europe could shift geographically: while southern and central Europe increasingly suffer from heat and drought, more northern regions could actually benefit from longer, frost-free growing seasons.
2. Increase in Diseases and Pests
A warmer climate provides not only the potato but also its natural enemies with longer growing seasons. Longer summers and milder winters allow pests such as the Colorado potato beetle or wireworms (larvae of click beetles) to complete more reproductive cycles per year and expand their geographic range.
Additionally, extreme weather events and heat stress promote the spread of fungal diseases such as early blight (Alternaria) or late blight (Phytophthora infestans), as well as bacterial infections like stolbur. And the battle continues even after harvest: hotter summers and warmer temperatures in autumn and winter make storing potatoes increasingly difficult and expensive. The tubers break their dormancy earlier and begin to sprout prematurely.
3. How Can Agriculture Adapt?
To meet these challenges, adaptation strategies are urgently needed. European farmers are already focusing on breeding and cultivating new, adapted potato varieties that offer greater yield stability and better resistance to heat, drought, and disease. In addition, planting and harvest times are being shifted, and water-saving and more efficient irrigation methods are being implemented.
References
- Bomers, S., Ribarits, A., Kamptner, A., Tripolt, T., von Gehren, P., Prat, N., & Söllinger, J. (2024). Survey of Potato Growers' Perception of Climate Change and Its Impacts on Potato Production in Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. Agronomy, 14, 1399.
- Egerer, S., Fajardo Puente, A., Peichl, M., Rakovec, O., Samaniego, L., & Schneider, U. A. (2023). Limited potential of irrigation to prevent potato yield losses in Germany under climate change. Agricultural Systems, 207, 103633.
- Goffart, J.-P., Haverkort, A., Storey, M., Haase, N., Martin, M., Lebrun, P., Ryckmans, D., Florins, D., & Demeulemeester, K. (2022). Potato Production in Northwestern Europe (Germany, France, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Belgium): Characteristics, Issues, Challenges and Opportunities. Potato Research, 65, 503–547.
- von Gehren, P., Bomers, S., Tripolt, T., Söllinger, J., Prat, N., Redondo, B., Vorss, R., Teige, M., Kamptner, A., & Ribarits, A. (2023). Farmers Feel the Climate Change: Variety Choice as an Adaptation Strategy of European Potato Farmers. Climate, 11, 189.